Tyler Robinson non-cis/non-straight? [Polymarket]

121

Ṁ77k

Oct 13

92%

chance

ALL

Resolves according to this Polymarket:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Tyler Robinson is any gender or sexual orientation other than "straight cisgendered man" by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official statements from Robinson, his legal representation, and information released by law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Update 2025-09-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Will mirror Polymarket's final resolution — If Polymarket resolves Yes, this resolves Yes; if No, this resolves No. No independent interpretation.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

27 Comments

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opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 88% order

sometimes I feel like people don't take this fake money prediction market seriously

@jessald He sacrificed his mana for the poor

RIP Evan (2)

Same question but not assuming that dating trans women is gay:

https://manifold.markets/cvja/tyler-robinson-noncisnonstraight-ac

How on Earth is this 88%?

@JaundicedBaboon Yeah, should be higher

Why do people keep filling my outrageous limits, playmaker is at 96

@JeromeHPowell polymarket*

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 88% order

Anyone want to fill me at 88

@JeromeHPowell

bought Ṁ50 NO

Where's the evidence they were partners?

@PhilosophyBear unnamed 'senior FBI officials' said they were partners according to fox news. this interview with a (claimed) neighbour agrees. both low credibility sources obvs

@PhilosophyBear Axios reports that "six sources familiar with the investigation told Axios that investigators believe Robinson had a romantic relationship with his roommate." This is the highest credibility source about their relationship so far but it doesn't mean the sources are credible or have concluded anything definitive. I do think "six" sources implies relatively high confidence and Axios is highly regarded in general.

My hunch is people within the administration briefed a bunch of outlets on Saturday about the theory which the right wing tabloid media reported immediately. More mainstream/careful outlets like the NYT, CNN, WSJ may not have verified it to a high degree of confidence and they probably want to be very careful for obvious reason. Axios is an interesting exception.

@brod I hadn't seen the interview with the supposed neighbor. Strikes me as a weird thing to make up if untrue.

So this is basically a market on whether the manifold moderators think having sex with a transgender woman counts as "queer" or "straight"?

Or is it @brod who is making the final call?

Is there a possibility that this market and the Polymarket market might resolve differently?

opened a Ṁ2,000 YES at 81% order

@jessald Resolution is fully based on polymarket here

@jessald also it's not confirmed that he had a trans roommate or gf at all

@jessald From Polymarket -

"For the purposes of this market, if it is confirmed that Tyler Robinson was in a relationship with a transgendered individual, this market will resolve to "Yes"."

Adjust your pricing accordingly.