Will violent crime rates increase in the USA in 2023? (based on FBI UCR)
Will violent crime rates increase in the USA in 2023? (based on FBI UCR)
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Resolves based on whole-year comparisons of FBI UCR (https://www.fbi.gov/how-we-can-help-you/more-fbi-services-and-information/ucr) between 2022 and 2023, for the following definition of violent crimes: "In the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program, violent crime is composed of four offenses: murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. Violent crimes are defined in the UCR Program as those offenses that involve force or threat of force."

Will resolve as soon as I become aware that UCR data for 2023 has been posted. Latest is probably Nov 2024.

Resolves N/A if FBI UCR data for 2023 does not become available in 2024, or if the FBI changes its definition of violent crime to make like-to-like comparison impossible.

Note that, due to potential variation in the number of police departments reporting, I will attempt to use a rate rather than absolute number (if reported).

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This is a fascinating topic with real societal impact—I’m curious how recent trends in public safety and reforms might influence 2023 crime rates. On a lighter note, data discussions like this remind me of staying sharp with immersive games like Snow Rider 3D to decompress. By November 2024, it’ll be intriguing to assess these projections against the FBI UCR data and see how accurate they were. Thanks for sharing such a detailed breakdown!


bought Ṁ100 NO6mo

@Bjorn this can resolve. Numbers were released last week.

1y

No. Considering historical values, it's predicted that the violent crime rate in the USA may not increase in 2023. The trend from 2020 to 2022 shows a consistent decline in violent crime rates. Concurrently, unemployment rates have decreased since 2020, suggesting a recovering job market that can help reduce crime rates. However, elevated Consumer Price Index (CPI) values for 2021 and 2022 indicate potential economic instability. While this can sometimes correlate with higher crime rates, the combined influence of declining violent crime and unemployment trends might lead to stabilization or a moderate decrease in violent crime rates for 2023.

References:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/191219/reported-violent-crime-rate-in-the-usa-since-1990/

https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.us.htm

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/unemployment-rate#:~:text=U.S.%20unemployment%20rate%20for%202022,a%200.23%25%20decline%20from%202018.

https://www.bls.gov/regions/southwest/data/consumerpriceindexcyhistorical_southwest_table.htm

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