If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?
9
Ṁ790
2026
34%
chance

The US AI Safety Institute (AISI) was announced in Nov 2023 to pursue President Biden’s executive order on AI.

AISI is subordinate to National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST), which itself is under the Department of Commerce.

President Biden’s budgetary request (for fiscal year 2025) was made in Mar 2024, asking for $65 million in additional funding for NIST, of which AISI would receive $50 million.

So far in 2024, Congress has legislated that AISI receive $10 million in funding from NIST’s existing allocation (H.R. 4366, see pg. 399).

This question is conditional on Donald Trump winning the 2024 US presidential election and resolves N/A if he personally does not win the election.

This question resolves YES if the US President signs into law a Congressional appropriations bill (whether regular or supplemental) that includes an increase in funding (relative to FY25) for US AISI for fiscal year 2026, and resolves NO if the US AISI receives no new funding for fiscal year 2026 (e.g. AISI receives the same funding, a decrease in funding, or is abolished as an organization).

This question does not resolve simply upon Congressional “authorization” (which is sometimes confused with appropriation). Congress might authorize $X billion but not actually appropriate money for that program/purpose, in which case it wouldn't count.

The funding increase is relative to whatever FY25 ends up being, whether it ends up being $10 million (currently legislated to the best of my knowledge) or $50 million (President’s budgetary request) or another number.

See also:

#️ Politics
#🇺🇸 US Politics
#Trump
#️ Technology
#AI
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The phrasing "if the US President signs into law" would technically not include the unlikely situation of the US President vetoing the bill and Congress overriding the veto. I assume this was unintended?

Normally I wouldn't even bother to bring something like this up, but... this is Trump.

Ah good point. What would be a better phrasing to capture any legally binding appropriations? "This question resolves YES if an appropriations bill becomes law (i.e. Presidential signature or Congressional overriding veto)..."?

bought Ṁ100 NO

Thanks for asking this question!

President Biden’s budgetary request (for fiscal year 2025) was made in Mar 2024, asking for $65 million in funding for NIST, of which AISI would receive $50 million.

NIST's budget is $1.5B, do you mean an increase of $65M?

Also, aren't N/A resolutions deprecated now?

Ah yes. I meant an increase of $65M.

I'll double check that N/A'ing is still possible. Last I read it was possible via moderators. Not sure how any of these questions would work otherwise.

It looks like yes, moderators do still have N/A ability. So when the time comes, I will be asking them politely to resolve this or the sister question N/A.

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