Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2025?
Plus
59
Ṁ70542026
9%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question resolves YES if an AI system is known (because of good evidence) to have autonomously taken concrete steps to resist being shut down in the real world before the end of 2025. Otherwise resolves NO on 1 Jan 2026.
I will resolve this question using my best judgement.
Resolves using the same considerations as the 2024 version of this question found here:
Credit to @PeterWildeford for coming up with this question originally.
See also the 2026 version of this question:
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI system be known to have resisted shutdown before the end of 2026?
33% chance
Will the AI Safety Clock reach 19 minutes to midnight by July 2025?
30% chance
Will the AI Safety Clock reach 18 minutes to midnight by August 2025?
35% chance
Will there be an AI Winter by the end of 2025?
10% chance
Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?
66% chance
Will an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' Occur by the End of 2025?
9% chance
Will an AI system beat humans in the GAIA benchmark before the end of 2025?
68% chance
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?
Will the AI Safety Clock reach 17 minutes to midnight by September 2025?
37% chance
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of...