MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Was the US already in a recession in July 2024?
βž•
Plus
55
αΉ€19k
resolved Aug 2
Resolved
NO
1D
1W
1M
ALL

July 2024 unemployment data triggered the Sahm rule, which is an indicator that the US is in a recession.

This market resolves YES if the NBER declares, before August 2025 (US eastern time), that the US entered a recession that began or was ongoing in July 2024.

#πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ US Politics
#Economics
#United States
#Global Macro
#Inflation
Get αΉ€1,000 play money

πŸ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1αΉ€1,383
2αΉ€314
3αΉ€248
4αΉ€128
5αΉ€68
1 Comment
Sort by:

@chrisjbillington resolves NO

Related questions

Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?
1% chance
US Recession in 2025?
17% chance
US officially enter a recession in 2024? (NBER)
3% chance
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?
13% chance
Will there be a recession in the U.S. in 2025?
15% chance
Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?
13% chance
United States Recession by End of Q2?
2% chance
Conditional on there being a US recession in 2024, will Q3 2024 have negative gdp growth?
15% chance
United States Recession by End of Q4 2025?
12% chance
US Recession before 2024? (No) β†’ Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?
1% chance

Related questions

Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?
1% chance
Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?
13% chance
US Recession in 2025?
17% chance
United States Recession by End of Q2?
2% chance
US officially enter a recession in 2024? (NBER)
3% chance
Conditional on there being a US recession in 2024, will Q3 2024 have negative gdp growth?
15% chance
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?
13% chance
United States Recession by End of Q4 2025?
12% chance
Will there be a recession in the U.S. in 2025?
15% chance
US Recession before 2024? (No) β†’ Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?
1% chance
BrowseElectionNewsAbout