Each option resolves YES if a publicly announced, bilateral (or mediated) agreement that halts offensive military operations between Israel and Hamas occurs before the listed date in Pacific Time. The agreement must halt all offensive military operations across the entire Gaza Strip for at least 72 consecutive hours to be valid for this market. The start time is considered to be when the ceasefire enters into force, not when it is announced.
I copy here my message in another market with the same deadline (Will there be another Gaza ceasefire before April 2026? | Manifold)
It would be great to have a very clear deadline for when the 3 days are over. There were many headlines about the ceasefire start, and some traders may confuse different deadlines:
1) ceasefire plan announced after US+Hamas+Israel preliminary agreement
2) ceasefire plan ratified by Israel cabinet
3) ceasefire starts after IDF withdrawal completion
The ceasefire actually started at deadline 3, but I just want to make sure we are all in the same page.
I would consider this message by Israel Defense Forces as the official announcement:
https://x.com/IDF/status/1976579233133609249
This implies the 72 hours are due at Monday 13th October 12:00 (Israel time zone)
@EdwardGao the responses are created as independent markets, there is no automatic readjustment. When you notice such incosistencies you can benefit from correcting them. Options:
A) vote NO October to make it lower
B) vote YES to others to make them higher.
C) you can combine YES and NOs
When there are many responses in a narrow range it takes a while to do a perfect stair of chances when you want to move the chances of all responses up or down.
Maybe your fastest fix is to bet NO to Oct25 and YES to Jun26
@MiguelLM ok thanks, just wanted to make sure I wasn’t misunderstanding the way this would be resolved!
@EdwardGao probably when @aleven voted it up from 92% to 97%, October was the only relatively cheap option at 92%. He could have split the vote into tiny votes at several responses. It depends on how much time you are willing to spend.
lots of arb with this market if someone cares enough to figure out how to claim it: https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/will-there-be-another-gaza-ceasefir?r=U2F2aW9yb2ZQbGFudA
@SaviorofPlant thanks for the recommendation
Actually the liquidity gap is quite big
After a 100 Mana bet to reduce a few percentual points in your market I had to do 12 bets of 2-3 Mana each, and I still haven't balanced both YES and NO sides
@SaviorofPlant and the account is deleted. I just noticed that the deleted account is not only a problem for the closure date but also for the resolution of each answer every 15 days.