Who will win FOLDED?

Ṁ9884

Jul 31

ALL

14%

11%

11%

Resolves to the user who wins FOLDED. The winner resolves YES and the losers resolve NO. If multiple users win, all winning options will resolve YES. If no one wins, (game is cancelled, etc.) all options resolve NO. Players who are eliminated will resolve NO as they are removed from the game.

#Fun

#Manifold

#Manifold Users

#Manifold User Retention

#FOLDED

#Endurance Sports

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

19 Comments

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sold Ṁ121 @121 NO

@121

bought Ṁ172 @Reid NO

@evan Reid is dead https://manifold.markets/post/introducing-folded-12000-mana-prize#uZn0gZIA

@evan

Hecko, Adaury, and AndrewG are dead.

https://manifold.markets/Bandors/will-anyone-be-eliminated-from-fold#lymli54cnsp

If anyone wants to make higher-liquidity bets on me in particular (or arb) https://manifold.markets/retr0id/will-i-win-the-folded-grand-prize

Will I win the FOLDED grand prize?

9% chance. What is FOLDED? https://manifold.markets/post/introducing-folded-12000-mana-prize I have already paid the M2000 entry fee. Teaming up with other users is a hypothetical possibility, resulting in splitting the prize. In such a case, this market resolves YES if I receive a >=30% share of the prize, even if I do not "win" as an individual. This applies only to direct prize winnings and not e.g. profits from related markets like this one. I will be betting in this market - likely betting NO as a hedge against losing. YES holders may be incentivised to help me win the game!

@retr0id oh wait you probably won't want to arb, different resolution criteria!

opened a Ṁ255 @121 YES at 50% order

I think I have 50% chance of winning

bought Ṁ10 @121 NO

Dagonet is 121's biggest supporter

Can you add more liquidity and unrank this please @evan

@100Anonymous 1000 would be plenty if the options were linked instead of being 20 indedpendent sub-markets with 50 each.

@100Anonymous why unranked?

@bens otherwise people can manipulate the market

@SimonWestlake It ends up being the same amount of liquidity so long as you bet NO on other options after buying YES on one

bought Ṁ10 @121 NO

@evan unrank?

@100Anonymous I don't think this market meets the criteria for being unranked

@evan it is manipulable (i.e. someone can bet no here and not check in on folded thus making ranked profit for leagues. Making it unranked would cause it to have no benefit.

Fun market. I'll avoid betting for obvious reasons lol

filled a Ṁ150 @Quroe NO at 2% order

@Quroe Either I win Folded, or I win this bet.

opened a Ṁ10 @Quroe YES at 3% order

@Quroe I opened limit orders if you want to increase your bet a bit

filled a Ṁ886 @Quroe NO at 3% order

@SimonWestlake In a pool of 20-ish players, somebody will surely spend more of their time online than me and devote more time to this game than I can. Offer accepted.

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