Will I win the FOLDED grand prize?
13
Ṁ4343
Dec 31
9%
chance

What is FOLDED? https://manifold.markets/post/introducing-folded-12000-mana-prize

I have already paid the M2000 entry fee.

Teaming up with other users is a hypothetical possibility, resulting in splitting the prize. In such a case, this market resolves YES if I receive a >=30% share of the prize, even if I do not "win" as an individual. This applies only to direct prize winnings and not e.g. profits from related markets like this one.

I will be betting in this market - likely betting NO as a hedge against losing.

YES holders may be incentivised to help me win the game!

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ1,000 NO

free mana! thanks

Rationally I should be betting more on NO (for aforementioned hedging reasons), but I believe in myself too much

I'm glad you posted this, I had no idea this was a thing!

Here's my version: https://manifold.markets/SimonWestlake/will-i-win-the-folded-grand-prize-LytII25RnS?r=U2ltb25XZXN0bGFrZQ

bets no
/s

lol, good luck!