Who would you prefer to reach AGI first? | Manifold

Who would you prefer to reach AGI first?

25

2026

OpenAI

Google

Anthropic

xAI

Between these four options.

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Anthropic > GDM > OpenAI > xAI is my gut feeling. Which feels weird because Elon has specifically stated his p(doom) is ~20% and seems to genuinely believe it.

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Will we get AGI before 2029?

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Will we get AGI before 2031?

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Who will be first to AGI

Which company will create AGI first?

Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?

A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?