Will the Alternative for Germany become the biggest party in the 2029 German Bundestag elections?
10
Ṁ921
2029
40%
chance

The AfD must get the biggest share of the votes/seats in the Bundestag in the next Bundestag election (currently scheduled for March 2029) for this bet to equate to True. CSU and CDU will be counted together as one party.

#️ Politics
#Elections
#Germany
#AfD
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
1 Comment
10 Holders
30 Trades


Sort by:
opened a Ṁ5 YES at 17% order1mo

@fedora You might want to change this to "in the next Bundestag election (currently scheduled for March 2029)", as the date might change and I suppose you just mean the next election.

Also please specify whether you'll count CDU/CSU combined or individually.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.

Related questions