What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 4?
7
Ṁ178
2050
19%
Lithuania
19%
---no Article 4 before 2030---
9%
Finland
7%
Poland
5%
Turkiye
4%
Estonia
4%
Sweden
4%
Latvia
4%
Romania
4%
United States of America
3%
Ukraine
3%
Other
3%
Norway
3%
Bulgaria
3%
Czech Republic
3%
Slovakia
3%
Greece
3%
United Kingdom

//this market was created AFTER Poland invoked Article 4 in September 2025.




"Article 4 of NATO Treaty:

The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened."

Article 4 of the NATO treaty covers the case when a member state feels threatened by another country or a terrorist organization. The 30 member states then start formal consultations at the request of the threatened member. The talks look at whether a threat exists and how to counter it, with decisions arrived at unanimously. Article 4 does not, however, mean that there will be direct pressure to act. Since the Alliance’s creation in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked several times.


((Market works no longer than till 2030.)

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