Resolution criteria

• Timeframe: Events must occur between 00:00 UTC on 1 September 2025 and 23:59 UTC on 30 September 2025.

• “Poland invokes Article 4” resolves YES if Poland formally requests consultations under Article 4 and this is acknowledged by an official NATO release or an official Polish government source during the window. Verification: NATO Press Releases page and/or Polish MFA news page. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/press_releases.htm, https://www.gov.pl/web/diplomacy/news- (nato.int, gov.pl)

• “Poland invokes Article 5” resolves YES if the North Atlantic Council announces that Article 5 has been invoked in relation to an attack on Poland during the window (i.e., a formal NAC determination referencing Article 5). Verification: NATO Press Releases page; Article 5 explainer for context. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/press_releases.htm, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/110496.htm/ (nato.int)

• “Poland invokes neither” resolves YES if neither of the above occurs within the window.

• Precedence/edge cases: If both Articles 4 and 5 are invoked in September, “Article 5” takes precedence and resolves YES; the others resolve NO. Co-invocations count if Poland is explicitly named among the requesting states. Mere emergency NAC meetings or media reports do not count without explicit Article 4/5 language in official sources. (nato.int)

Background

• Article 4: Allies consult whenever any deems its territorial integrity, political independence, or security threatened. Treaty text: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm (nato.int)

• Article 5: Collective defence—an attack on one is an attack on all; NATO notes it has been invoked only once (after 9/11). https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/110496.htm/ (nato.int)

Considerations

• NATO can hold emergency NAC meetings without invoking Article 4; only meetings expressly “under Article 4” count. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_room.htm (nato.int)

• If another Ally requests Article 4 without Poland as a requester, it does not satisfy “Poland invokes Article 4.”

• For verification speed, traders can watch NATO’s Press Releases feed and the Polish MFA’s News page; those will be used for resolution. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/press_releases.htm, https://www.gov.pl/web/diplomacy/news- (nato.int, gov.pl)