If Trump wins in 2024, will a journalist be arrested for criticizing or otherwise reporting on him during his term?
If Trump wins in 2024, will a journalist be arrested for criticizing or otherwise reporting on him during his term?
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note: Not too happy with current criteria, so they're up for modification in the next month (dec 2023), please ask clarifications or make suggestions!

It doesn't count if the journalist criticized him but also committed some other crime that would usually be prosecuted anyway. It would qualify if the journalist's arrest is nominally for some other crime but in substance retaliation for speech.

In the event something like that does happen, I expect it to be ambigious what exactly happened. If it is ambiguous, I'll delay resolution until the story stops changing (could be years!) and evaluate all the evidence. If significantly disputed, a resolution council of trustworthy users will judge in my place..

#Trump
#Republican Party
#️ US Democracy
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5mo

These might help with resolution criteria:

https://www.rcfp.org/jailed-fined-journalists-confidential-sources/

https://rsf.org/en/barometer?exaction_pays_pays=107&exaction_pays_annee=2024&exaction_pays_statut=prison#exaction-pays

RSF keeps track, not sure about RCFP but I expect they would report on it?

opened a Ṁ100 YES at 25% order8mo

Interesting question! Would be nice if the other conditional (Harris elected) was also here.

Are you still considering changing criteria?

8mo

Btw, added it to the US Democracy dashboard:

https://manifold.markets/news/us-democracy

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