Background
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) regularly publishes key economic indicators including monthly jobs reports and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on a predetermined schedule.
Resolution Criteria
Market resolves YES if any of the following occur for either the monthly jobs report or CPI data:
Publication is ordered to be stopped
Publication is delayed due to policy decisions (not technical issues)
Credible reports emerge of significant data manipulation
I will use my own judgment of credibility and significance based on my own knowledge of the data and the institutions that produce them
Market resolves NO if none of these events occur by market close.
Considerations
The BLS has institutional safeguards and a long history of maintaining independence in data collection and publication
While there is precedent for political interference with some government data (e.g., CDC reports), there is no documented history of direct interference with BLS economic indicators
"Significant manipulation" would need to involve changes that materially affect the data's accuracy or interpretation, not just changes in methodology or presentation that are publicly announced and justified
For of clarity, my inclination is not to view the nomination or even confirmation of EJ Antoni as ipso facto a resolving event.
However if the monthly jobs report is actually paused I would view that as stopping or delaying publication of jobs data for policy reasons and would resolve the question as "YES".