Do you expect AI progress in 2026 to look more like A or B? | Manifold

Do you expect AI progress in 2026 to look more like A or B?

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Sep 28

A

B

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B and I kinda have doubts about yellow part of the curve too. It feels more or less linear between the first reasoning models and now, although it obviously depends on how you measure.

It feels more or less linear between the first reasoning models and now

@ProjectVictory sublinear

@skibidist 🤦

B until A. No idea if A is in 2026, but probably not.

What do the axes represent

@realDonaldTrump progress over time

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