Will AI or AI-assisted math break AES-256 before quantum computing does?
Plus
19
Ṁ6992040
22%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Lots of judgment calls involved in this, which I will resolve in good faith. (And I won’t bet on this.)
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
Excepting the quantum aspect, this seems impossibly subjective.
What counts as “broken”? We have a 2^119 attack already! If a researcher crafts a “mere” 2^110 attack (~500x stronger than status quo), would that qualify?
What counts as “assisted”? If that researcher admits to mainly incidental use of LLM-based chatbots during their research, would that qualify?
Related questions
Related questions
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
81% chance
Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2070?
35% chance
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
40% chance
Will AI solve any of Hilbert's unsolved problems before April of 2025?
2% chance
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
18% chance
Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2033?
15% chance
Will a quantum computer perform a calculation by 2026 that is impossible for any classical supercomputer?
61% chance
Will quantum computing lead to a scramble to quickly update encryption algorithms?
46% chance
SHA-256 broken by quantum computer before 2030
39% chance
Which of the following quantum computing technologies will first succeed in breaking 256-bit Elliptic Curve Encryption?