Gavin Newsom recently indicated that he fears that the 2028 election will not happen. See https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/09/24/newsom-fears-no-2028-presidential-election/86330039007/
How likely are his fears?
Resolution criteria:
If the US presidential election is held on Tue, Nov 7, 2028, resolves YES. If it is not (including if it is delayed to a later date but still happens), resolves NO.
If the election is held but is reported by internationally reputable observers to be fraudulent or a sham election, will resolve NO. If the election "happens," but the legal result is not honored (by the legally elected president taking office on Jan 20, 2029), will resolve NO. Note - the "legally elected president" mentioned in the preceding sentence means the person who wins a majority the Electoral College vote, or, in the case of no majority, the backup selection procedure in which the House of Representatives selects the president, voting as states.
I will not trade in this market. In the event that I feel I cannot resolve the market consistent with the criteria laid out above, due to unforeseen circumstances, I may resolve it N/A.
@js If the legally elected president takes office, doesn't that mean he is honoring the legal result?
@JussiVilleHeiskanen I intended that the parenthetical phrase is explaining what I mean for the election to be “honored” rather than for what it means to be “not honored” but I see how it could be confusing. You can also read the sentence with the parentheses removed, maybe makes it clearer: “If the election "happens," but the legal result is not honored by the legally elected president taking office on Jan 20, 2029, will resolve NO.”