Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2024 elections?
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Nov 19
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Resolves to YES if the Democratic Party wins at least 218 of the 435 seats in the US House of Representatives in the November 2024 elections. This can include independent candidates who caucus with the Democrats (in the same way that the party's Senate majority relies on independent senators). It doesn't matter if a Democrat actually becomes Speaker, only who wins more than half the seats in the election.

US Congress
#๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US Politics
#2024 Matt Yglesias Predictions
#US Congressional Elections 2024
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bought แน€250 NO

@CryptoNeoLiberalist Look at what the districts actually are for a more accurate prediction

@CainanKeyles Thank you, I am looking hard at it all!

WA PRIMARY +17. I REPEAT. WA PRIMARY +17.

What happens if, for example, there are 217 Democrats, 216 Republicans, and two Libertarians who don't caucus with either party?

https://split-ticket.org/2024/06/01/introducing-our-2024-house-model/

bought แน€100 NO from 58% to 54%

Made a time sensitive (but inversed, this is just the question with the Yglesias tag) version of the question, for the Yglesias prediction category (reasoning inside why it's not just a duplicate):

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