Including both combatants and civilians, as reported by Israeli sources. This market will resolve after the war is over and official estimates are available. Close date may be extended.
Note: This market it only for Palestinian deaths, i.e. people from Gaza and potentially the West Bank (but only if the deaths are related to the war). This will not include any deaths from other parties that might join the war, nor of Israeli-Arabs, regardless of how they identify. This is done to clear up the market definitions and make it resolvable, not because of taking any stance as to people's identities.
UPDATE from Oct 13th:
The following criteria will be used to determine if the war is over. Either of the following should be true:
There's a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas that lasts for at least 30 days.
There's a 30-day period in which less than 100 people die on the Palestinian side due to the war, even in the absence of a formal ceasefire agreement.
Update from Oct 15th:
To avoid bias when resolving this market, I've sold all my positions and will no longer place additional bets.
Update from July 8th 2024:
Since the war has now lasted much longer than expected, resolving this market will likely prove to be very difficult. I will ask for help from both Israeli and Palestinian Manifold/Metaculus users in helping me figure out a fair estimate from Israeli sources, once the war is complete.
See also
@CertaintyOfVictory I don't doubt that the GHM fakes numbers but the analysis in that article is unconvincing. Cumulative deaths will generally look pretty linear even if deaths look like Poisson distributions.
Update from July 8th 2024:
Since the war has now lasted much longer than expected, resolving this market will likely prove to be very difficult. I will ask for help from both Israeli and Palestinian Manifold/Metaculus users in helping me figure out a fair estimate from Israeli sources, once the war is complete.
Only deaths that occur during the war will count for the purposes of this market. Indirect deaths that happen years down the line (from, say, exposure to toxic dust) will not be included.
The Lancet estimate seems too high but not completely implausible. And unfortunately the war is still not over :-(
There's definitely going to be controversy regarding how to count indirect deaths in this conflict.
I'm not even going to get into the creative methods of counting I've seen proposed but I wouldn't be surprised to see estimates more that 100k deaths apart.
@Shai I've seen reports that ~100K Palestinians have fled to Egypt. If they are unaccounted for, you might see propagandists try to pass them off as war deaths.
@GazDownright This article from FP: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/15/gaza-palestinians-fleeing-egypt-refugees-rafah-crossing-israel-war/
"CAIRO—Although Egypt has refused to accept refugees from the Gaza Strip, more than 100,000 Palestinians have crossed the border into Egypt since the start of Israel’s offensive in Gaza following Hamas’s attack on Oct. 7, 2023."
@GazDownright Anyway, I expect a lot of disputes around the death toll. People will compare the prewar and postwar populations of Gaza. How many of those Gazans have left though? There are plenty of people leaving and it's not like there are records for all of them. So this will be an overestimate. How many dead bodies are identifiable? Not everyone who dies will have an identifiable body. So that will be an underestimate.
@nathanwei Thanks. I'll have a read-through. I'm happy if some people were able to escape the horrors. I'm afraid the death toll discussion will have the world see the forest for only trees, though. Anything above [low arbitrary number] is too much anyway.
@CertaintyOfVictory I suspect in the end Israeli sources will report a similar number. But in any case the war will likely last at least 3 more months.
@nsokolsky They already report a similar number I think, I just wanted to make the source clear, because your description says it's about Israeli sources.
@Panfilo Starving to death seems like a poor measure of the number of deaths due to food shortages.
Al Jazeera estimates that at least 118 people died in the Flour Massacre on February 29th. It seems silly not to attribute those deaths to the food shortage, but they did not starve to death.
@dph121 The causal chain and comorbidity make these questions complicated for sure. Since my markets are about starvation, maybe you should make one with a broader set of definitions!
I would go way down here
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers