This market resolves to 2 * max(50 - px, 0)
Where px is settlement price of Scott Alexander's AI movie market at the end of 2024.
If the linked market is trading at 60%, this resolves to 0%. If the linked market is trading at 38%, this resolves to 24%.
Settlement details: I'll take the volume weighted average price over the last 24 hours of 2024. I may tweak or slightly randomize settlement time to improve fairness. I won't trade in either market leading up to settlement.
https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener
I'd be inclined to spread the reference price window out a bit more -- VWAP over the last 12 or even 24 hours of trading, or something. Last 5 trades is still manipulable.
Longer intervals do make things harder for bots to work with; do you expect meaningful liquidity on these markets from quant bots?