Will a GLP-1 agonist diabetes / weight loss drug be the top bestselling drug in 2025?
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25
Ṁ1266
2026
30%
chance

Since the first FDA approval for weight loss, GLP-1 receptor agonists are in the news as new blockbuster drugs.

As of today, neither Novo Nordisk's Ozempic / Wegovy (Semaglutid), nor Eli Lilly's Mounjaro / Tirzepatid are projected to generate more 2023 sales than Merck's Keytruda (Pembrolizumab, a checkpoint inhibitor used in tumor therapy).

This market will resolve YES if a GLP-1 agonist is the best-selling drug in 2025 (new sales) per reliable company or media reports.

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#Weight loss drugs
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Does "bestselling" mean "top dollar value" or, like, doses sold?

Does it count if the drug hits multiple targets and one of the targets is GLP-1R agonism? For example, tirzepatide targets both the GLP-1 and GIP receptors.

predicts NO

@Tossup I'm inclined to include cases like that

I am betting under the assumption that this is about global sales, as you did not specify any single country.

@WXTJ Yes, global sales

Based very directly on this from @habakuk

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