🌭What will happen in July 2025? [ADD RESPONSES]
Mini
83
Ṁ7788
resolved Aug 1
Resolved
YES
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
Resolved
YES
noam chomsky alive until end of month
Resolved
YES
nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once
Resolved
YES
trump leaves usa at least once
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive during the entire month
Resolved
YES
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
Resolved
YES
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news
Resolved
YES
dick cheney still alive at end of month
Resolved
YES
earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher
Resolved
YES
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
Resolved
YES
nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
Resolved
YES
usa troops enter syria
Resolved
YES
NASDAQ hits an all time high
Resolved
YES
Volcano dormant for half a year erupts
Resolved
N/A
Resolved
N/A
major tech company merger/acquisition announced
Resolved
NO
ukraine russia ceasefire
Resolved
NO
israel hamas ceasefire
Resolved
NO
china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ244
2Ṁ67
3Ṁ52
4Ṁ51
5Ṁ49
Sort by:
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news
bought Ṁ97 a tesla catches fire... YES
earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher
bought Ṁ83 earthquake 7.5 magni... YES

@strutheo this has happened, off the coast of Russia and Alaska.

bought Ṁ50 Answer #husL8PtlEl YES

@Mete worldwide or just in a specific country?

usa troops enter syria

@strutheo how do you resolve this? There were 900 still, earlier, then they were increased to 2000, haven't found a timeline on that...

bought Ṁ105 usa troops enter syria YES
trump leaves usa at least once
Tumbles is late to pay back a loan https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba
bought Ṁ65 Tumbles is late to p... YES

@strutheo This has already happened, based on the loan ledger at https://manifold.markets/Tumbles/will-tumbles-ever-be-late-to-pay-ba

@evan was that in July

@strutheo mb, misread the june 15th loan as july 15

nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once

@strutheo
NVidia $3.885B market cap per https://companiesmarketcap.com/ at closing price $159.34 but highest today 160.98 so $3.925B reached today.

Apple $3.189B at closing price of $213.55 but peak price was $260.09 so peak market cap $3.884B
Microsoft $3.707B at closing price of $498.84 peak value $500.76 so peak market cap $3.72B

So I think this resolves yes.

bought Ṁ50 Answer #ZSCyEU82OS NO

@strutheo was announced in March 2025