🍎What will happen in September 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]

106

Ṁ35k

Oct 1

ALL

Aug starts

93%

Yudkowsky and jimmy carter and noam chomsky all alive at end of month

82%

apple largest company at end of month

69%

Something happens that a mainstream news outlet refers to as an "early October surprise"

55%

Eminem releases or features on a new song.

54%

>= 26% of respondents believe that weak AGI has been achieved in the monthly poll

50%

web3isgoinggreat has at least 25 posts this month

45%

In the inaugural poll about non-human intelligence, >= 20% of Manifold users answer YES

36%

The monthly "Has weak AGI been achieved" Manifold poll regresses, with less YES from the August 2024 result

22%

Claude 3.5 Haiku is being released

21%

Iran makes a "major attack" against Israel, as judged by chris (@strutheo)

20%

Claude 3.5 Opus is being released

19%

spider man beyond the spider verse release date announced

19%

hurricane makes landfall in florida

17%

Temperature less than or equal to 45F recorded in nyc

17%

nyc receives 5 or more inches of rain

16%

Trump leads Harris on Manifold

16%

Temperature of 90F recorded in nyc

15%

Manifold odds for Harris win exceed 60%

11%

NASDAQ hits an all time high

10%

hollow knight silksong release date announced

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

#What Will Happen Markets

#September

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26 Comments

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@strutheo rate cuts can resolve YES if you get a chance. Thanks!

sold Ṁ45 Answer #uplebrri06 YES

@ijk1 this is very confusingly worded. second overall or second in september?

@polymathematic second overall, of course.

@ijk1 i think @mods could na bc people seem confused on it

@strutheo Done.

bought Ṁ50 Answer #7jx1ktble7 YES

@strutheo 650 enough?
https://www.ign.com/articles/microsoft-lays-off-another-650-staff-from-its-video-game-workforce-xbox-boss-phil-spencer-sends-memo-to-staff

The "countdown to AGI" is getting uncomfortably close. I will hang on for now, but I should know based on the monthly AGI polls to never bet on the NO side on that topic again.

@strutheo who do you think won the debate?

@strutheo This should resolve YES

opened a Ṁ6,000 Answer #df398023e84d YES at 99.0% order

This channel have posted several videos about soup this month with >1M views: https://youtube.com/shorts/CKcjrKrG-_s?si=OVNrxCsz5LfHKdlk https://youtube.com/shorts/AYrljjQe844?si=dxMZmoZFVE4IO5BF

@MugaSofer damn I never would've guessed this option would be resolved by indigenous African muckbang with the most unappetising soup known to humanity lol

See this question for more details about the latest answer added:

/SteveSokolowski/will-32-of-manifold-respondents-agr

@SteveSokolowski This and "wins most gold" resolve NO. https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/paralympic-games/medals

bought Ṁ100 Answer #stqgsmj4gy NO

@SteveSokolowski Note that there prior claimed results about 70b seem at odds with reality and third parties have found that its substantially worse. See here.

bought Ṁ750 Answer #c83ed3d38063 YES

@strutheo https://www.mantecabulletin.com/news/local-news/passenger-is-pulled-from-burning-tesla-by-officer/

bought Ṁ148 Answer #7f9e04591ad4 YES

@strutheo https://xkcd.com/2981/

bought Ṁ5 Answer #1008645f82a2 YES

@strutheo Does "rumble crash boooom" count as an explosion?
https://xkcd.com/2980/

@ChristopherRandles i wont count it, could be a lot of things that go boom

Can a lava lake open up on a golf course without an explosive release of pressure? Perhaps so, but if there is also a boom sound ...

I think it's strongly suggested that there's an explosion, but it's not actually visible, so it shouldn't count for this.

bought Ṁ5 >= 26% of respondent... YES

This image can serve as a reference for the past polls.

@SteveSokolowski nice, thanks

@SteveSokolowski Does this include all medals, or only those awarded in September?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 All of them.

@strutheo We should probably clarify that we allow other news sources for this too.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 yes edited

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