Resolves based on two binary conditions:
The winner of the 2024 presidential election as projected by the Associated Press*
The difference in the value of Bitcoin, in US Dollars, from the beginning of election day to one week later (12:00 AM EST Nov. 5–12:00 AM EST Nov. 12), according to the spot price on Binance
*Condition 1 need not be resolved before Condition 2, e.g. if a winner isn’t declared for a month, the time period Nov 5-12 will still be used
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ466 | |
| 2 | Ṁ226 | |
| 3 | Ṁ208 | |
| 4 | Ṁ8 | |
| 5 | Ṁ3 |
This can't be right. Right?
Consider an Election Unaware model:
Like - if you ignore the election and just assume the weekly return is sampled from the weekly return distribution for the past year, then btc is more likely to go up than down?
And you can quantify the relative likelihood of up versus down?