Resolves identically to this polymarket.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has ceased all ground operations within and has withdrawn all ground forces from Gaza between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn into or behind intended buffer zones, even if that zone is established on internationally recognized Palestinian territory.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
My YES bets yesterday had in mind lines 2 and 3 of Trumps map.
Afer a more careful review of the Polymarket link I find a much narrower buffer defined for resolution: "which limits Israeli military presence to narrow perimeter zones—approximately 1 km deep along Gaza’s borders—without ground operations". Then I bet NO today.
@traders You may want to read the updated detailed fineprint of the Polymarket link for an accurate understanding of what we are betting. There is a lot of additional details there.