Minimum to count as military conflict: either a combined 10 people die as part of action by either military OR a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil (doesn't have to be on military targets).
Update 2025-08-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A US Navy action against a narco-boat causing 10+ fatalities counts only if it occurs in Venezuelan waters.
Update 2025-09-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Ambiguous location won't count: If the location of an incident is unclear or disputed, it will not count toward YES. Location must be clearly established (e.g., USN interdictions must be clearly within Venezuelan waters).
Update 2025-09-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Only internationally recognized Venezuelan waters will count; incidents in disputed or solely Venezuelan-claimed areas (e.g., Essequibo maritime claims) will not.
Update 2025-09-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the narco-boat scenario, incidents only count if clearly within internationally recognized Venezuelan waters (as previously stated).
If the US and Venezuelan navies exchange fire, location is irrelevant; the Venezuelan-waters restriction does not apply to this case.
Update 2025-10-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Venezuelan military takes action against US targets (e.g., sinking a cruise ship in US waters), this counts as YES regardless of location, consistent with the rule that military-vs-military conflict counts regardless of location.
Update 2025-10-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A gunfight between smugglers and US Coast Guard (law enforcement) does not count as military conflict, even if 10+ people die. This is not considered an act of war.
Update 2025-10-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will not resolve immediately at the end of 2025. The creator will wait a day or two before resolving, especially if an attack occurred near year-end and final casualty numbers are not yet known.
Military action that takes place in 2025 but is reported after December 31, 2025 can still count toward resolution.
Update 2025-10-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Covert operations that remain unreported will not count. The deaths must be from a confirmed military operation or airstrike. Unconfirmed incidents (e.g., cartel members dying in 'workplace accidents' that might have been US operations) do not qualify.
The creator expects any qualifying military action to be reported quickly, especially given the current administration's communication style.
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-CARIBBEAN/MILITARY-BUILDUP/egpbbnzyrpq/
"Trust me bro, we're totally not planning anything bro."
@CornCasting The thing is, I now think mission was accomplished when Maduro went to Putin to beg protection.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen How is this mission accomplished exactly? I fail to see a world where the US is like "we spent millions of tax dollars getting our military into place and haha scared Venezuela into asking Russia for help. What a great victory for the US. Ok boys, pack it up and go home, we're done."
I think mission accomplished would be more like Maduro flees the country. In that scenario I think the US would be happy to not intervene militarily and peacefully see a pro-US government install itself in Venezuela.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen This is only mission accomplished if you think this means Maduro will step down soon.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen The guy at the top is the US. Don't ever let anyone gaslight you otherwise. The American people chose him.
@WillSLsN Trump denies that he has made a decision on Venezuela strikes though:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-31/trump-denies-that-he-s-made-decision-on-venezuela-strikes?taid=6904de7b03359f0001c52220&embedded-checkout=true
@CornCasting I think there’s enough momentum that they clearly are planning something. Very hard for me to see all of this being for nothing
@PaperBoy I fully agree. I'm mainly countering "US has decided attack Venezuela military sites" as if it is definitive. We still aren't at 100% yet. I think around 75-85% seems accurate.
Honestly, a reason to suspect nothing might happen is exactly because the news is reporting on it as if it is definitively going to happen? I don't remember the attack on Iran being like that. Could be a gunboat diplomacy ploy to try and put maximum pressure on Maduro's government. E.g. maybe if someone kills Maduro within his own circle the US packs up and goes home.
Dunno, on balance that seems less likely but not impossible?
@CornCasting I do think that's been the US strategy, yes. Buildup, increasing the bounty, pressure, ... I believe this is probably because the Trump administration thinks such an intervention would be less popular than in Iran. This is because Iran is more visible as an American enemy, so there needed to be PR groundwork. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if they were originally trying to start it after the end of the shutdown, but it seems it will make longer than expected.
@PaulBenjaminPhotographer I'll wait for a day or two before I resolve the market, especially if some attack happened and there is reason to believe we don't know the final casualty numbers yet
@AlexanderTheGreater But you aren't going to wait for months to see if some of the 'workplace accidents' that befall cartel members were in fact the work of US forces?
Neither side is particularly motivated to announce covert operations at the moment.
@PaulBenjaminPhotographer no. given the people have to "die as part of action by either military OR a confirmed airstrike on Venezuelan soil", it really should be a military operation. People falling down stairs doesn't quite fit here. Something like the Bin Laden raid would but we learned about that almost immediately. I'd expect the delay to be even shorter with the current admin who has no filter.
Helicopters belonging to US special forces have been flying near Venezuela's coast so now I am wondering if this market resolves to YES how likely is it we see actual boots on the ground? Made a market here for that:
https://manifold.markets/CornCasting/us-troops-on-venezuelan-soil-before
U.S. Carrier to the Caribbean: A Step Closer to War: https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-carrier-caribbean-step-closer-war
If I were a Manifold whale, I would bid this up to 80%.