If the US only conducts air/missile/drone strikes from afar and/or support proxies on the ground without using their own military then this will resolve to NO. It only resolves YES if US United States Armed Forces combat arms are on the ground. CIA saboteurs or agitators don't count. It has to unambiguously be US military.
If the US does not clearly attack in 2025 this resolves N/A regardless of whether there are US troops on Venezuelan territory or not
If the linked market below resolves Yes then for the purposes of my market the US has attacked Venezuela and my market can no longer resolve N/A:
https://manifold.markets/market/military-conflict-between-the-us-an#507ufumbvgg
Update 2025-10-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): US Special Forces would count as United States Armed Forces combat arms for the purposes of this market.
Looks like the US will for sure attack at this stage (Or at least >50%)? Just a question if they will only be airstrikes now: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article312722642.html
Also FAA issues temporary flight restriction over Ceiba, Puerto Rico, designating it as ‘National Defence Airspace'
@bens Updated that it has to be United States Armed Forces combat arms. CIA saboteurs or agitators do not count.
US Special Forces would certainly count.
@AlexanderTheGreater Correct. Updated resolution criteria. Has to be United States Armed Forces.
If boots are really sexy I'll think about it...