Definition of “US military action"

Any of the following qualify:

1. Kinetic military activity by US armed forces in, over, or against Venezuelan territory, including:

   • Airstrikes, missile strikes, drone strikes, or bombardments

   • Special forces raids

   • Use of US military assets in a directly offensive operation

2. Deployment of US combat troops into Venezuelan territory

   • Includes Marines, Army, Special Forces

   • Does not include embassy security reinforcements unless they fire weapons in an offensive capacity

3. US military engagement with Venezuelan state forces

   • Any firefight, exchange of fire, or confirmed military fatalities/injuries attributed to US armed forces

4. US Navy/Coast Guard sinking, disabling, or firing upon Venezuelan state military vessels

   • Only counts if the action is confirmed as intentional use of force, not an accident or misidentification event later publicly retracted

Exclusions (resolves NO unless escalation occurs)

These do not count as “military action”:

• Purely economic sanctions

• Purely cyber operations unless a US military official confirms they are an act of war

• Naval patrols, freedom-of-navigation, or routine intercepts without weapons fire

• Support to third parties (e.g., intelligence, training, equipment) unless US forces participate in combat

• CIA or covert actions not publicly acknowledged

• Non-offensive evacuations of US embassy personnel

• Defense of US assets outside Venezuela (e.g., Caribbean theater)

Resolution Source Hierarchy

If sources conflict:

1. Department of Defense official press release

2. U.S. government press briefing transcript

3. Reuters / AP / AFP

4. Other reputable international outlets

If initial reports are later formally retracted by sources at levels (1)-(3), the retraction takes precedence.

Examples of What Would Resolve YES

• A US drone fires a missile at a target in Venezuela

• US Marines conduct a raid on Venezuelan soil

• US fighter jets strike a Venezuelan military base or convoy

• A US naval vessel fires upon and disables a Venezuelan Navy vessel

• US troops cross into Venezuela in a combat operation

Examples of What Would Not Resolve YES

• Sanctions on PDVSA or Venezuelan officials

• US Navy vessel interdiction of non-state smuggling boats

• US troops in Colombia or Guyana without crossing into Venezuela

• Reports of “US involvement” that later turn out to be Colombian, Brazilian, or other forces

• Covert CIA activity never acknowledged publicly

Final Resolution

Market resolves YES if any qualifying event occurs; otherwise NO on the resolution date.

• Update 2025-12-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Recent seizure events do not qualify as military action:

  • The M/T Skipper seizure occurred in international waters (not Venezuelan territory)

  • Merchant tanker seizures do not count as "firing upon Venezuelan state military vessels"

  • Controversial boat strikes reported by Reuters also occurred in international waters

Actions must occur in, over, or against Venezuelan territory or involve Venezuelan state military vessels to qualify.