When will Alibaba release Qwen 4?
10
Ṁ2724
2026
15%
Before November 2025
23%
Before December 2025
35%
Before January 2026
59%
Before February 2026
65%
Before March 2026
77%
Before April 2026

Minor changes to the name, such as using "Qwen 4 400B A40B" or "Qwen 4.0 mini" or other names for a model generally expected to be called Qwen 4, will count for the purpose of this market

To count as released, the model must be accessible to some people outside Qwen, and be officially announced. If it's banned in some country, this market would still resolve YES. If it is available through some API only this also counts as a release. If it's available to some users on the official qwen website, this is also sufficient.

See also:

/Bayesian/when-will-google-release-gemini-3

/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-5

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt6

/Bayesian/when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4

/Bayesian/when-will-meta-release-llama-5-6h9UypqOdp

/Bayesian/when-will-alibaba-release-qwen-4 (this market)

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-a-browser

/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grokipedia

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-their-next

/Bayesian/when-will-thinking-machines-announc

Get Ṁ1,000 play money