"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.
Models are considered released if they are accessible to some members of the public beyond a closed beta. An API-only release counts, as is one limited to payed users or users of a particular country.
See also:
/Bayesian/when-will-google-release-gemini-3
/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-5 (this market)
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt6
/Bayesian/when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4
/Bayesian/when-will-meta-release-llama-5-6h9UypqOdp
/Bayesian/when-will-alibaba-release-qwen-4