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fucking brutal

@MalachiteEagle eh it's cope. There are two labs above OA on lmarena. Sam's days are numbered.

@jim haha guess we'll see. I think OpenAI has some internal results with o4 (or whatever they're calling it) that are quite far beyond anything Google has.

@jim oh and the image stuff is just with gpt-4o, will be interesting to see how fast they ship gpt-4.5 image capabilities

@MalachiteEagle is it confirmed that 4.5 can generate images natively? i thought 4o was unique in its multimodality?

@SaviorofPlant I haven't seen them explicitly confirm it, but I think the likelihood is very high, especially since it was originally intended to be their gpt-5 model

@MalachiteEagle i think 4o was trained more recently than 4.5, which has an october 2023 knowledge cutoff. seems likely to me that 4o was an experimental model testing this type of multimodality and previous models did not have it

@SaviorofPlant they have a fine-tuning/continual-learning technique allowing them to update the knowledge cutoff from a given base model

@SaviorofPlant they got multimodal working with gpt-4o, released it (without the multimodal output) and then started the work / training run for gpt-4.5. This produced lower-quality results than they hoped, so they went in circles for a few months until the episode with Q* happened

@MalachiteEagle oh hang on, that's not right. They released gpt-4o in first half of 2024. Q* shenanigans happened in late 2023

@SaviorofPlant but point being that I'm pretty sure gpt-4.5 training run was a scaled up version of what they got working for gpt-4o

@SaviorofPlant created a question for this: https://manifold.markets/MalachiteEagle/will-openai-release-true-multimodal?play=true

@Bayesian Nice snag. Now go beat Hillary in Masters. 😆

@Quroe i might make more from losing we'll see

nvm not really significant

https://x.com/ArtificialAnlys/status/1904467255083348244

@jim you’re buying this at 2% when it’s available at 0.1c on polymarket

in other words: not gonna happen

https://x.com/Alibaba_Qwen/status/1897361654763151544

@Frankas impressive but doesn't seem likely to lead to a rank 1 placing

@jim their "max" model is supposedly coming soon

https://x.com/Alibaba_Qwen/status/1894130603513319842

https://x.com/lmarena_ai/status/1896590146465579105

Wouldn't they already be testing these models anonymously on lmsys arena if they were to take the lead there by the end of the month?

They are making cryptic comments

https://x.com/lmarena_ai/status/1892698530814337420

I take that to mean there's a new anonymous model on lmarena 🤔

Haven't seen anyone mention it on twitter yet though

@MalachiteEagle Not necessarily no, there’s 40 days left

Oh sorry I misread that as "before March".

Here's a question in case one of these appears tomorrow: https://manifold.markets/MalachiteEagle/will-there-be-a-new-and-smart-anony?play=true