Will an AI win a Gold Medal on the International Math Olympiad by 2027?
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Plus
165
Ṁ62k
resolved Jul 22
Resolved
YES
Get Ṁ1,000 play money

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OPENAI CHEATED, THIS PERSON IS LYING. I WILL NEVER TRUST AI GLAZERS LIKE THIS EVERT AGAIN. I HATE AI. SAVE THE TREES AND SAVE THE SEAS.

bought Ṁ6,000 YES

@mods resolves as YES. OP was last active a year ago.

predicted NO

Arbitrage opportunity between this market and the market below:

https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/will-ai-first-get-imo-gold-in-2026?r=cGw

I personally think this market is overvalued and will lose price in the next years.
To profit off this earlier I created the following derivative market that will resolve earlier. Please bet YES on that market if you disagree with me 😄

predicted NO

A plain English reading of this market seems very likely NO just because AIs do not appear eligible for the IMO under the current rules. Will this market instead use the IMO Grand Challenge resolution criteria?

A digital mind may compute with ease,
But math medals for AI? Pretty please.
Gold belongs to those with flesh and bone,
Let's leave the numbers to us alone.

@Mason THATS A TERRIBLE POEM