Will AI labs need to switch to monitoring chips for a moratorium on AI development to work?
Mini
3
Ṁ72035
54%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Inspired by https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.11341
my resolution criteria are similar to my question about open source chips https://manifold.markets/Jono3h/will-open-source-chip-development-h , except that the chips should have monitoring capabilities approximately as described in the aforementioned paper.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will Open Source chip development have been a crucial factor for enabling a global AI moratorium?
19% chance
Will there be a global "pause" on cutting-edge AI research due to government regulation by 2025?
1% chance
Will the US government require AI labs to run safety/alignment evals by 2025?
20% chance
Will xAI stop working on AI research by 2029?
41% chance
Will any developed country establish a limit on compute for AI training by 2026?
21% chance
Will Hank Green support pausing or stopping AI development?
10% chance
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?
16% chance
Will the US government enact legislation before 2026 that substantially slows US AI progress?
18% chance
Will the US regulate AI development by end of 2025?
34% chance
Will California impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?
18% chance