Will Japan control Sakhalin on Jan 1st 2032?
Mini
11
Ṁ740
2032
31%
chance

Resolves as YES if Japan controls the island of Sakhalin on January 1st 2032

#🇷🇺 Russia
#Geopolitics
#🇯🇵 Japan
#Russia-Japan war
#Sakhalin
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gpt-5-pro gives me 0.3% on this: https://imgur.com/a/DaAgLm1

If North Korea took Vladivostok, would Japan take Sakhalin to prevent NK from getting it? 🤔

Seems like a stretch

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