How will this resolve if NOAA gets disbanded or is otherwise unable to make predictions about temperature (eg required to publish false numbers because of political pressure)?

@KJW_01294 It is the resolution source, so will resolve to their official numbers.

If NOAA gets disbanded, then probably we will need to find another credible agency or resolve to global scientific consensus

https://x.com/hausfath/status/1889371032898687234

The high January temperatures have increased the odds of 2025 being the warmest year on record from 6% at the start of the year to 30% after January. However, the declines in global temperatures we've seen in February to-date in reanalysis may temper this.

note that it's down further in reanalysis since this tweet/report https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world

(edit: went back up since then)

@StevenK note also that Berkeley Earth's estimate was the highest/most uncertain out of four at the start of the year https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/january-sets-an-unexpected-temperature

@StevenK they're now at 38% https://berkeleyearth.org/february-2025-temperature-update/

(noting that I'd make a lot more mana off this if I pretended to have dumb culture war reasons for my predictions, and that this aspect of prediction markets makes me uncomfortable)

I assume you mean "2025 will be the hottest year so far", as in, compared to the years prior?