On 4 February 2025, President Donald Trump promised that the United States will "take over the Gaza Strip" and that, "we’ll own it and be responsible". Several regional Arab leaders have signaled their rejection of this idea. Many questions surrounding Trump's announcement remain open.

• Trump has said that Jordan and Egypt should absorb the Palestinians currently residing in Gaza.

  • Will the Palestinians be forcefully removed from Gaza?

  • If so, will Jordan and Egypt accept them as refugees?

  • Will the displaced Gazans be allowed to return to the Gaza Strip after the hostilities with Israel resolve?

• What does taking responsibility for the region mean?

  • Will Trump try to make the Gaza strip into a US territory, like Guam?

  • Will American companies receive any incentives to develop the region?

  • If so, how much, if any, emigration will take place of American entrepreneurs, contractors, or digital nomads resettling the Gaza Strip?

While this question cannot directly address all these many open questions, it instead does aim to measure the perceived chance that President Trump will follow through on his promise to take over the region, AND that the United States develops the Gaza Strip using its own economic levers to the point that a city-sized population of American citizens has moved there by the time Trump's second term nears its close.

This yes/no question will resolve "Yes" if, by Jan 1 2029 or earlier, the population of the Gaza strip, by latest estimates, reaches at least 50,000 United States citizens.

For scale, an August 2023 Reuters article estimated there were only "hundreds of Palestinian-Americans in the Gaza Strip" (last paragraph).