Fed Rates

The Fed's biggest interest rate call in years happens Wednesday. Here's what to expect

While markets have made up their mind that the Fed is going to cut, there's a vigorous debate over how far policymakers will go.

Will the Fed cut rates by more than 25bps in November?28% chance

Will the Fed cut rates by more than 25bps in September?YES

US enter a recession in 2024? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)9% chance

Will the US enter a recession by first half of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)25% chance

Plus

Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024?18% chance

Will the FED cut rates *before* their scheduled September meeting?NO

Will Manifold price a 2024 US recession at >50% at the end of 2024?8% chance

Mini

Will the Fed make an emergency unscheduled rate hike or cut in 2024?2% chance

[ACX 2024] Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?94% chance

Plus

Will FED cut rates at their September 2024 meeting?YES

Will the US "vibecession" continue through all of 2024?81% chance

In which FOMC meeting will the FED pivot (lower interest rates)?

100%99.0%

September 17-18

0.0%

Apr/May 30-1

0.1%

June 11-12

0.1%

July 30-31

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When will FED lower interest rates (so called "pivot")?

100%99.3%

September 2024

0.0%Other

0.0%

Not before 2030

0.0%

August 2023

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When will the FED pivot (lower interest rates)?

100%99.0%

Q3 2024

0.1%

Q1 2024

0.6%

Q4 2024

0.1%

Q2 2024

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Will the Fed cut rates before October 21st?99% chance

The US Fed will do a rate cut before the US Presidential election.99% chance

Will the FED drop interest rates at least once before the end of 2024?YES

[ACX 2024] Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?8% chance