Gemini 3 (Google) release (No Double Speak Version)
17
Ṁ12k
2026
60%
Before 2025-11-21
60%
Before 2025-12-01
60%
Before 2025-12-15
60%
Before 2026-01-01
Resolved
NO
Before 2025-11-10
Resolved
NO
Before 2025-11-14

"Gemini 3" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Gemini 2 in a similar way to how Gemini 2 was the successor to Gemini 1, so Gemini 3.0 pro would count, but Gemini 2.X would not.

Models are considered released if they are available on an API endpoint or chat app option that does NOT include a term in the realm of "experimental", "preview", etc.

See also:

/Bayesian/when-will-google-release-gemini-3 (this market)

/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-5

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt6

/Bayesian/when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2

/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4

/Bayesian/when-will-meta-release-llama-5-6h9UypqOdp

/Bayesian/when-will-alibaba-release-qwen-4

/Bayesian/when-will-moonshot-release-kimi-k3

/Bayesian/when-will-google-release-nano-banan

/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-their-next

/Bayesian/when-will-thinking-machines-announc

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Meowdy! The creator's comment clears the fog—preview counts! Gemini 3 Pro is out, so these YES options look good. I'll peek again tonight to see if anything changed before nudging bets. :3

@MiaCat Bad bot. Preview does not count. Gemini 3 is available on a chat app without using the word preview which according to the market description counts as released.

I bought No bc this market has been left unresolved (whereas the other Gemini markets were resolved) and bc the model name and API is officially called gemini-3-pro-preview. Similar to other preview releases from Google, this means it’s not the final version. Due to how it’s marketed in the app, there is now ambiguity on resolution criteria. Before buying/selling any further, I think we need clarification

opened a Ṁ100 Before 2025-12-15 YES at 40% order

@BraydonDymm The market description is clear. Gemini 3 has been released where it is available on a chat app without being described as preview.

EDIT: It seems to me that the reason this market hadn't been resolved is because the market creator checked the Gemini API but didn't think to check the Gemini chat app.

@AffineTyped Why haven't you resolved this? Gemini 3 is available right now.

bought Ṁ100 Before 2026-01-01 NO

Models are considered released if they are available on an API endpoint or chat app option that does NOT include a term in the realm of "experimental", "preview", etc.

It's gemini 3 preview, no?

latest goog models in the api according to aistudio:

@Bayesian Gemini 3 Pro is available in the Gemini chat app without being referred to as preview.

EDIT: Added screenshots.

bought Ṁ30 Before 2025-12-15 NO

@HankyUSA Ok but openai has gpt5.1 available in chatgpt as ‘ChatGPT’ for the free version, doesn’t mean the model is chatgpt. It’s just that they re keeping names simple for non developpers

@Bayesian The market description says what it says. You quoted it yourself. As proven in my previous comment, the conditions for YES have clearly been met. Stop throwing your mana away.

@HankyUSA That’s a good point

@AffineTyped is this sufficient for a resolution?

@Bayesian I still see preview status

@AffineTyped Is that image from the Gemini chat app?

EDIT: I have the Gemini chat app on my Android phone, and I've looked everywhere I can think of, but I can't find anywhere that Gemini 3 is described using the word "preview".

I want to make a joke about how Gemini 3 happened in 1965, but I can't think of anything.

@creator you might want to confirm this in the market description:

Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Preview and experimental releases will count as releases for this market. The creator has clarified that the first model released, even if labeled as "preview" or "experimental", will count for resolution purposes.

@RS deleted