This refers to the first human brain upload able to remember a password given to their biological predecessor.
All years after the year this happens will resolve to YES, e.g. if it happens in 2031, then 2035, 2040 etc will all resolve in YES.
Disclaimers:
This question is part of Foresight’s 2023 Vision Weekends to help spark discussion amongst participants, so the phrasing and resolution criteria may be vaguer than I would normally like for this site. Apologies for that. We thought it would still be useful to make the market public to potentially inform other discussions.
If you would to add alternative answers, please do so in the comments!
@AllisonDuettmann I like how you say the very clear market is not as clear as you'd like. There are many users on this site that are the opposite, they create horribly vague markets and don't realize that people telling them the market is not clear are basically right by definition. Keep up the good work.
People who know they'll die soon might agree to this: people with terminal diseases, those committing assisted suicide, executed convicts.
Once the process is well-developed enough (which might take quite a few test subjects), healthy people would volunteer to be uploaded. Depending on the world I'd get to live in, I might volunteer.
One particular world I'd like one of my ems to live in is one where all prediction market questions are as well-defined as this one. But such a world is fantasy, fairytale, fictional, and farcical.