How Many Engine Burns will FAIL on Starship Flight 10?
10
Ṁ1221
Aug 31
16%
0 FAIL
18%
1-3 FAIL
18%
4-9 FAIL
16%
10-19 FAIL
16%
20-33 FAIL
15%
34+ FAIL

I am defining a Successful Engine Burn as a planned engine firing that when commanded ignites and completes the full duration of its burn as intended.

A failure of an engine burn is whenever the engine fails to the ignite when otherwise stated to have been intended to ignite or whenever an engine fails to completes its burn regardless as to why.

Engine failures include when a stage is destroyed before completion of the burn as well any instance where the intended action is not completed successfully (a booster catch for example).

For example Flights 7 & 8 spun out of control and exploded before reaching the target trajectory.

Current understanding of planned burns:

1st Stage Burn 33

Boost Back Burn 10

*1st Stage Landing 13 (12?)

2nd Stage Burn 6

*Orbital Maneuver 1 (?)

Flip and landing 3

*This number has changed previously and may stray from current number.

As of 08-08-2025 I am not aware of a flight plan being available given directly from SpaceX.

Please let me know if you have any questions or concerns and good luck!

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Resolution criteria is too unclear for me. If it [s]explodes[/s] rapidly disassembles, that would mean 34+ failed?

@Bandors If the full stack explodes during the first stage burn then yes. Thanks for the question i believe i forgot to clarify that any engines intended to ignite but dont due failure of any kind counts as a failed engine burn.

@Bandors ive tried a similar market in the past and had similar struggles with clarity i really dont know how to word this correctly as the subject matter, “engine burns” doesnt have a well agreed upon name.

I don't think they are planning a 'landing' of the second stage for this flight, at least ... not intact. But I could be mistaken.

@BorisBartlog Its not strictly relevant to the market but yea i meant a controlled splashdown really. Unless you are saying they are not even trying that which i haven't heard and wouldn't understand why they would do that.